One of the big hopes of civil liberties campaigners is that a change of government will bring an end to Labour’s creeping surveillance state. Of course the reality will be somewhat different, but if the politicians keep to their word, we should at least see an end to ID cards and ContactPoint.

But when might that change take place?

Word on the bush telegraph is an autumn 2009 poll is favoured. I’m not so sure. With the economy breathing like a 40-a-day smoker, Brown would be wise to choose a date that coincides with another planned election to save the country some valuable cash. Ladbrokes currently price a poll in May 2010 (local elections) as 13/8 favourite, followed by June 2009 (Euro / locals) at 4/1.

Those predicting an early poll could cash in if Gord calls one in April 2009 (14/1) or May 2009 (16/1).